If for example we assume that the total length of the problem were three weeks then the impact could be nearly one

General — June 14, 2010 at 20:36

“If, for example, we assume that the total length of the problem were three weeks, then the impact could be nearly one percentage point less growth, bringing our current -3.3 percent estimate to around -4.2 percent,” HSBC economists Juan Trevino and Sergio Martin wrote. The firm said the estimate relies on a set of rigid assumptions. These include overlooking seasonal factors, vacation days, a limit to the flu’s geographical impact to just around Mexico City, a curtailing of only the commercial food and lodging industry around the capital and a complete stop to both tourism and leisure activities on a national level. “As a result, our estimate should be taken with caution and be considered only as a reference for all purposes,” HSBC wrote. Much of Mexico’s wealth is generated in the capital Mexico City and its suburbs. The outlook for Mexico’s economy has become increasingly miserable in recent weeks, with some analysts predicting it could contract by 5 percent this year.

The latest central bank poll of analysts saw GDP contracting over 3 percent. Separately, Merrill Lynch’s chief Latin American economist, Felipe Illanes, told investors in New York that the likely impact of the virus will result in less than half a percentage point drop in gross domestic product for the year. Illanes, speaking at the EMTA Spring Forum, said the flu would likely “shave less than 50 basis points off this year’s growth.” EMTA is a trade association for emerging market finance professionals. But in a follow-up interview with Reuters, Illanes said the exact figure would be published on Friday, adding, “A lot depends on what kind of policy responses are taken by the government It also depends on whether the U.S orders the borders to be closed. We just don’t know yet.” Illanes said that before the flu outbreak it was expecting Mexico’s economy to contract 3.2 percent. Using the example of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed more than 800 people around the world in 2003, Illanes said Mexico could benefit later in the year from pent up demand as a result of the slowdown caused by the flu.(Editing by Christian Wiessner) Mexico Mexico. (For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP]) TOKYO, May 1 (Reuters) – Japan’s seasonally adjustedunemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.8 percent inMarch, while job availability slid to the lowest level in almostseven years, government data showed, as the labour market lagssigns of improvement in other parts of the economy.

[JPUNR=ECI] The unemployment rate rose from 4.4 percent in February,which was highest in three years, and was higher than a medianmarket forecast of 4.6 percent. The jobless rate was the highest since August 2004, when itwas also 4.8 percent. The jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 0.52, meaning there were52 jobs for every 100 applicants The market’s median forecastwas for a ratio of 0.55. The number of new job offers fell 22.3 percent in March froma year earlier, after a 30.1 percent drop in February from a yearearlier. The Wildcats have come a long way since having their pre-season tournament taken right out of their hands after a late foul call sent NC State to the free throw line, and gave the Wolfpack a victory over a fiery 'Nova team. Villanova has been led all year long by young players who bring energy and quickness to the floor and excite fans wherever they play. The most talented of the “young guns” is Sophomore Scottie Reynolds a 6'2 (barely) guard out of Herndon, Virginia. Scottie has averaged 34 minutes a game while scoring 17 points and adding four assists per game.

He's been the MVP so far. Villanova moved on to the regular season still feeling a little ill about their loss to NC State. Despite crushing Penn 87-61 in their first game, Villanova found themselves in an extremely tough game five nights later with a scrappy LSU team in the Big East-SEC Invitational. Led by Junior guards Terry Martin and Marcus Thornton, the Tigers overpowered the Wildcats for the first 32 minutes of the game, building up a 21 point lead. With most of the fans either leaving or just booing, Villanova coach Jay Wright turned to the team's new freshman sparkplug, Malcolm Grant.